preliminary study
Wednesday, October 12th, 2011The economic period reason and Chinese economy increases a reason preliminary study
From science technique pound at, supply pound at, need pound at, system pound at, currency pound at, information dissymmetry, finance pound at, political period etc., inquiry into economic cause of period, discover economic period theories with economy growth but development, and discover that the reason of economic high-speed Chinese growth is mainly a technique impact, need impact and system impact.Because China internationalization and financial market of extend day by day, supply pound at, currency pound at, information dissymmetry, finance pound at also will more and more important.
Keyword:Economic period;The economy increases;Reason
A, preface
Economic period(Business cycle):The economy that points to appear in the economic movement extends with economy tighten alternation change in succession, circulation back and forth of a kind of phenomenon, seem the periodic take place similar, so call it as an economic period.Ancient economy almost the alternation exercises on a level, for example Maddison estimates for 1500-1820 years,s, person in Western Europe all the GDP growth rate is 0.15%, the person of Asia all GDP is placed in stagnation, so the classic economic period mainly emphasizes extending of economic total amount and constringency.But modern economy high speed development,recreational area far far above the ancient economic growth speed, for example the United States is from 1960 go to in 20th century early actual GDP on the average annually about 3.5%, but”four small tigers”s in East Asia are each from 1966-1990 years of actual person all the income increases above 7% annually, while the economic growth of China 30 years is more average more than 9%, so the modern economic period mainly emphasizes an economic growth to lead ascension with descend of alternation change.Just such as 1977 Lucas at 《to the comprehension of economic period 》in to the economic period description is for”economic period is economy change to measure to over a long period of time deviating of steady growth trend”.
Economic period and economy increase a close relation, underneath reason of the economic period carries on inquirying into, among them not a few is also the reason of the economic growth, can analyze the reason of former economic high-speed Chinese growth together, and inquiry into China in future to probably need some factors for paying attention to.
Two, reason
1.Science technique pounds at.The modern economy growth theories thinks that the technique progress is the source of economic growth over a long period of time.Ancient science technique development is slow-moving and thus caused the slowness of economic growth.Along with the first time and the second-time science and technology revolution, the world economy gets biggest a development.A fight the explosion backlog of two wars a great deal of science technique, especially post-war science and technology revolution, consumedly stimulated the growth of world economy.Post-war United States makes use of two to fight to acquire backlog and Germany of science technique, increased a period of time over a long period of time, slowed down till the time in the beginning of 70′s in 20th century.China founds a nation behind together the Soviets Be close to cooperate and consumedly promoted science technique, afterwards Be tended to even slow.The reform makes use of a science technique in the whole world after opening, economic high speed development, but along with with world science technique of is close, the economy also gradually starts getting into a steady growth.money strategy guideIt is thus clear that the huge influence of science and technology period to the long term and the super long-term economy is usually a long term with super over a long period of time the main cause of economic period.Famous economist F.E.Kydland and C.I.Plosser put forward physically economic period theories( Real Business Cycle Theory) and thought that the source that the economic period undulates is actual factor(like technique, policy, natural disaster, and war…etc.), among them particularly is important is a technique impact, not name factor(if the currency measures etc.), make in the analysis of the economic period generally balanced analytical and actual factor and tiny view foundation can renew, and with this acquires 2004 Nobel economics prize.
2.Supply impact.The classic economics thinks supplying to pound at influence to just produce and cause economic motion.Actually the ancient times produce usually can not meet the demands, total the supply usually predominate.The modern economic period theories takes it as foundation and inheritted the standpoint of the supply impact huge function, thought cause economic motion of actual factor, include the rate of production fluctuation, production factor that technique progress brings to supply fluctuation etc. supply of impact.Two petroleum crisis in 1973 and in 1979, inflicted a heavy losses on to take petroleum as industry foundation of west nation, caused at the end of 70′s in 20th century western economy completely decline and Zhi bulge.The Chinese reform opened to miss this two petroleum crisis, but, along with the high-speed development of Chinese economy, the influence of the motion upon China of the international original material price is more and more big, for example the violent motion of prices, such as petroleum and iron mine stone…etc. by all means will result in the influence on Chinese economy.The supply not only includes an original material supply, but also includes a labor force supply.20th century the last 20 years, India, China waits a nation to open an entrance to a country and computes according to a professor in Harvard University, suddenly many whole world more than 500,000,000 cheap labor force, the huge labor force supplied impact to lower cost and promoted the development of world economy.The Chen Kun Ting and Gong is six, the Zou Heng after using RBC just(2004) the analytical Chinese economy think and lead into supply the impact improved model to the consumer estimate ability;Lead into a supply to pound at better than lead into a need to pound at.
3.The need pounds at.Kai boon Si doctrine the macroscopic economics think, the gross demand is the main decision factor of economic motion in the short date.The modern economic period theories is also bringing into need to make the physically changing of the economic motion measured and not only bring into the impact of supply, but also also bring into the impact of personal need needs, such as hobby variety and government need variety…etc. experiences personallyto make the physically changing of the economic motion measured in.The reform opens and world change into China to bring a global market, especially huge before of American consumption market demands, biggest stimulated the development of Chinese economy.Positive because demanding huge function, crisis the government enlargement government throw in and extend gross demand and reduced a decline, even slow the motion of economic period.Last time 4 investments in China in economic crisis in the world, effectively pulled to move inside need, maintained an economic high speed growth.In China, invest very big cake of is carried on by the government.Therefore, the motion of investment of this aspect can account into gross demand.D from clear, Chen Zhong often(2009) pointed out multifarious adjustment of central is the important factor that the economic motion fluctuates with public finance relation in the place.Paying an is even, Liu Jin Be identically equal(2005) to discover, the Chinese public finance scale shows the negative relativity of Zhao with the existence of the actual motion.